Author: Ryan Thornburg

Text as prepared.

YOU LOOK GREAT. A SEA OF BLUE. 20 YEARS AGO I WAS ONE OF THOSE DROPLETS IN THE SEA OF BLUE.

I’M HONORED TO BE SPEAKING WITH YOU HERE TODAY. BUT I’M NOT HONORED SO MUCH AS I AM SURPRISED. BECAUSE THE DATA 20 YEARS AGO WOULD NEVER HAVE MODELED A SCENARIO IN WHICH I WOULD BE SPEAKING AT GRADUATION IN THE DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH.

I WAS A WORDS GUY WHO IN COLLEGE TOOK ABSOLUTELY AS LITTLE MATH AS POSSIBLE. THE ONE QUANTITATIVE COURSE I DID TAKE IN COLLEGE WAS A STATISTICS CLASS. PROFESSOR LEDBETTER — WHO IS RETIRING THIS YEAR — WAS THE INSTRUCTOR, AND IT HAS THE HONOR OF BEING THE LOWEST GRADE ON MY PARTICULARLY UNREMARKABLE TRANSCRIPT.

IF 2017 RYAN HAD GIVEN A GRADUATION SPEECH TO 1997 RYAN, WHAT HE MIGHT HAVE TOLD HIM WAS THAT AT THIS MOMENT IN YOUR LIFE, ALL THE POSSIBLE FUTURES THAT YOU’VE IMAGINED FOR YOURSELF — AND EVEN THOSE YOU CAN’T IMAGINE — HAVE A PROBABILITY GREATER THAN 0 BUT LESS THAN 1. AND AT THIS POINT, YOU STILL DON’T YET HAVE ENOUGH DATA TO BUILD A GOOD MODEL FOR WHAT LIFE HAS IN STORE FOR YOU. AND THAT DATA, WHILE GOOD AT TELLING US WHAT HAS BEEN, AND WHAT IS, AND WHAT MIGHT BE — IS NOT AS POWERFUL AS STORIES TO HELP US IMAGINE THE LIFE WE WANT AND TO HELP US MOVE THE ODDS OF GETTING THERE CLOSER TO 1.

DURING MY 20-YEAR CAREER IN JOURNALISM, DATA HAS BECOME A POWERFUL TOOL FOR FINDING STORIES THAT WE MIGHT MISS IF WE RELIED ON INTERVIEWS AND OBSERVATION ALONE. AS JOURNALISTS WORK TO SHINE LIGHT IN DARK PLACES, HOLD POWERFUL PEOPLE ACCOUNTABLE AND EXPLAIN THE INCREASINGLY COMPLEX WORLD WE ALL SHARE, DATA HELPS US DEVELOP THE WHO, WHAT, WHEN AND WHERE OF OUR STORIES. BUT DATA ALONE CAN’T TELL US “WHY?” OR “SO WHAT?” UNTIL WE ADD SOME PLOT TO THE STORY, DATA IS JUST A COLD FOSSIL.

SEE, TO HAVE A GOOD STORY, YOU HAVE TO RICH MOMENTS. LIKE THIS MOMENT THAT WE’RE ALL SHARING NOW. IT IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT OF YOUR CAROLINA STORY, NOT BECAUSE WHAT I’M SAYING RIGHT NOW WILL BE PARTICULARLY MEMORABLE FOR YOU IN 20 YEARS. THIS MOMENT IS POWERFUL BECAUSE IT’S ONE TO WHICH YOU’VE ALREADY BEEN DOZENS OF TIMES IN YOUR IMAGINATION. THIS MOMENT — NOT AS IT ACTUALLY EXISTS, BUT AS IT EXISTED IN THE STORIES YOU TOLD YOURSELVES ABOUT IT — PROPELLED YOU THROUGH HARD TIMES OVER THE LAST FOUR YEARS, TIMES WHEN THE DATA MIGHT HAVE TOLD YOU YOU WOULDN’T MAKE IT.

DATA CAN TELL US A LOT OF IMPORTANT ATTRIBUTES OF THIS MOMENT. I CAN TELL YOU HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE SITTING HERE. AND, IN FACT, I CAN TELL YOU THAT YOUR NAME IS MORE LIKELY TO BE EMILY OR MATTHEW THAN ANYTHING ELSE. AND WITH ENOUGH DATA, I MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND HOW EACH OF YOU GOT HERE. BUT WHAT I CAN’T TELL YOU — AND WHAT NO DATA CAN TELL YOU — IS WHY YOU ARE HERE.

THE DAY IS NOT FAR OFF WHERE WE COULD GATHER ENOUGH DATA ABOUT THIS MOMENT TO RECREATE IT IN VIRTUAL REALITY WITH PRETTY HIGH FIDELITY. IN FACT, COLLABORATIONS AMONG JOURNALISM, STATISTICS AND COMPUTER SCIENCE RIGHT HERE AT UNC WILL MAKE THAT DAY ARRIVE SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.

BUT WHILE DATA MIGHT ONE DAY BE USED TO RECREATE MOMENTS, IT CAN’T TELL STORIES. BECAUSE STORIES ARE RICH MOMENTS THAT ARE STRUNG TOGETHER WITH MEANING. STORIES NEED THE WHO, WHAT, WHEN AND WHERE OF DATA. BUT THEY AREN’T STORIES UNTIL THEY ANSWER THE QUESTION “WHY?”

SO, WHY ARE YOU HERE? WHAT’S YOUR STORY?

YOU SEE, FACEBOOK, GOOGLE, THE UNIVERSITY — THEY ALL HAVE DATA ABOUT YOU. BUT YOU YOURSELVES ARE THE ONLY ONES WHO GIVE THAT DATA MEANING, AND YOU GIVE IT MEANING BY TELLING YOURSELVES AND THE REST OF THE WORLD STORIES. AND IT’S THOSE STORIES THAT PROVIDE THE MORAL PROPULSION TO CHANGE THE DATA ITSELF.

SO, WHY ARE YOU HERE?

NOW, IF I COULD HAVE SUCKED UP ALL YOUR ANSWERS TO THE QUESTION WHY ARE YOU HERE AND RUN THEM THROUGH SOME NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING APPLICATION I MIGHT BE ABLE TO REDUCE ALL OF THAT DATA TO A SINGLE, MEAN ANSWER: YOU’RE HERE BECAUSE YOU HAVE SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED THE DEGREE REQUIREMENTS OF THE DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL IN 2017.

THAT’S THE COMMON REASON WE ARE ALL HERE. BUT WHAT’S THE REASON ANY ONE OF YOU ARE HERE. WHY ARE YOU HERE?

SO WHILE YOU’RE ALL MEDITATING ON THAT QUESTION, I’M GOING TO TALK TO THE PEOPLE WHO GOT YOU HERE — YOUR FRIENDS, YOUR FAMILIES, AND THE MILLIONS OF NORTH CAROLINIANS WHO WORK HOURLY WAGE JOBS AND PAY THEIR TAXES BECAUSE THEY SEE YOU AND YOUR PURSUIT OF THIS DEGREE AS A WORTHY INVESTMENT.

TO THOSE OF YOU WHO CONTRIBUTED SO MUCH TO THESE STUDENTS’ SUCCESS, WHAT YOU HAVE BEFORE YOU ARE BUDDING PROFESSIONALS IN SOME OF THE HIGHEST PAID AND FASTEST GROWING FIELDS. IN THE U.S. ALONE, THERE ARE ABOUT 100,000 JOBS FOR STATISTICIANS, AND IN 2024 THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 30,000. THE MEDIAN SALARY FOR THESE FIELDS IS ABOUT DOUBLE THE MEDIAN SALARY FOR A NEWS REPORTER. ACCORDING TO MY FORMER EMPLOYER, USNEWS, THE JOB OF STATISTICIAN IS THE FOURTH “BEST” JOB IN AMERICA. OR, ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT IT, IT’S THE TOP JOB WHERE YOU DON’T HAVE TO DEAL WITH OTHER PEOPLE’S BLOOD.

AS THIS DEPARTMENT’S WEBSITE WILL TELL YOU, THE GRADUATES SITTING HERE ARE WELL QUALIFIED TO “TACKLE CHALLENGING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEMS IN A BUSINESS OR SCIENTIFIC ENVIRONMENTS.” THEY WILL GO ON TO CAREERS IN GENOMICS; BIOLOGICAL MODELING; ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS; INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL MATHEMATICS; REVENUE, WORKFORCE, AND SUPPLY-CHAIN MANAGEMENT; TRAFFIC FLOW AND CONGESTION; AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS.

BUT REGARDLESS OF THE FIELD, A BIG PART OF MANY OF THEIR JOBS WILL BE ASSESSING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY.

GRADUATES, YOU ARE EMBARKING ON CAREERS IN WHICH YOUR WILL BE ASKED TO REDUCE RISK AND UNCERTAINTY JUST AT THE MOMENT THE WORLD SEEMS TO PREFER EXACTLY THOSE THINGS.

AS JOURNALISTS WHO TRIED TO PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF LAST YEAR’S ELECTION CAN TELL YOU, OLD MODELS ARE SUDDENLY INSUFFICIENT. AND IT’S NOT JUST IN POLITICS WHERE THE WORLD SEEMS ON UNCERTAIN FOOTING. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IS ACCELERATING AND BECOMING MORE ERRATIC. MODELS OF MILITARY POWER AND THE VERY RELEVANCE OF NATIONS ARE UP FOR DEBATE. AND CLOSER TO HOME, THE PATH TO ADULTHOOD AND ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE IS VEERING OF A COURSE THAT IT’S BEEN ON FOR GENERATIONS.

WHEN MANY OF YOU WERE IN KINDERGARTEN, MEN TRAINED AND FINANCED BY THE AL QAEDA TERRORIST ORGANIZATION DESTROYED THE NEW YORK WORLD TRADE CENTER AND BADLY DAMAGED THE PENTAGON. THAT WAS A MOMENT OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY THAT IS RICH IN DATA, BUT IT’S THE STORIES THAT WE TELL OURSELVES ABOUT THAT MOMENT THAT GIVE IT SUCH MEANING THAT THE NUMBERS 9 AND 11 CAN NO LONGER STAND FOR ANYTHING ELSE.

WHEN YOU WERE IN MIDDLE SCHOOL, A COLLAPSE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY CAUSED JOBS LOST AND DREAMS DEFERRED TO BE PROMINENT TOPICS IN EITHER YOUR OWN HOUSE OR YOUR FRIENDS’ FAMILIES. THOSE MOMENTS ARE PART OF YOUR LIFE STORY JUST LIKE TODAY IS.

UNCERTAINTY SEEMS TO BE EVERYWHERE THESE DAYS. FOR MANY PEOPLE, THE INSTINCT IS TO CLING TO SECURITY AS IF THE SONG IS ABOUT TO STOP IN A GAME OF MUSICAL CHAIRS. OTHERS SEE IN UNCERTAINTY A CHANCE TO SOW DOUBT AND UNDERMINE EVIDENCE.

FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE, UNCERTAINTY IS A SYNONYM FOR FEAR AND AN EXCUSE FOR CYNICISM. AND THOSE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO ASK PEOPLE WITH YOUR SKILLS, GRADUATES, TO TELL THEM HOW TO PROFIT FROM FEAR AND HOW THEY SHOULD HEDGE THEIR BETS SO THAT WHEN THE SHUFFLE IS DONE THEIR CARD IS ON TOP.

LIKE JOURNALISTS, YOUR JOBS WILL BE TO SORT OUT THE SIGNAL FROM THE NOISE AND TURN DATA POINTS INTO ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE. AND ALSO LIKE JOURNALISTS, YOUR CHALLENGE IS CHOOSING WHICH SOURCES TO TRUST, WHICH BITS OF INFORMATION ARE RELEVANT, AND THEN HOW TO COMMUNICATE INHERENTLY UNCERTAIN FINDINGS SO THAT THEY CAN BE UNDERSTOOD BY PEOPLE WHO DON’T HAVE YOUR ANALYTICAL EXPERTISE.

THE CHALLENGE OF TACKLING THESE QUANTITATIVE PROBLEMS DOESN’T EXIST JUST IN BUSINESS AND SCIENTIFIC ENVIRONMENTS. THE REASON YOUR SKILLS ARE SO VALUABLE IS BECAUSE THE WORLD TODAY IS RICH WITH DATA BUT POOR IN OUR ABILITY TO MAKE SENSE OF IT.

THE NEWSROOM IS JUST ONE PLACE THAT IS WAKING UP TO THE VALUE OF YOUR SKILLS. ADVERTISERS, LEGISLATORS; TERRORISTS, TRUCKERS, AND TAXI DRIVERS; POLICE AND POLITICAL DISSIDENTS ALL WANT YOUR SKILLS. YOUR GENERATION OF STATISTICIANS AND DATA SCIENTISTS WILL HAVE INCREDIBLE PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITY, AND THE STORY YOU TELL YOURSELF ABOUT WHY YOU ARE HERE TODAY WILL HELP DETERMINE WHETHER HUMANITY USES DATA TO EMPOWER OR ENSLAVE ITSELF.

DATA-DRIVEN AUTOMATION IS ABOUT TO UPEND THE GLOBAL WORKFORCE. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE FIELD OF JOURNALISM, DURHAM COMPANY AUTOMATED INSIGHTS TURNS DATA INTO ARTICLES FOR THE ASSOCIATED PRESS.

THIS KIND OF AUTOMATION IS EXCITING. BUT WILL WE BECOME SO ENTRANCED BY AUTOMATING THE DESCRIPTION OF WHAT IS THAT WE FORGET THAT DATA CANNOT TELL US INEVITABLY WHAT WILL BE? THAT’S LEFT UP TO US. WE CAN’T FORGET THAT EVERY FUTURE IS POSSIBLE, AND THAT IF WE HAVE CURIOSITY, IMAGINATION AND PERSEVERANCE WE CAN TIP THAT NEEDLE IN THE DIRECTION WE WANT.

NOW WE KNOW THAT ALL THE CURIOSITY, IMAGINATION AND PERSEVERANCE IN THE WORLD DOESN’T ALWAYS GET US WHAT WE WANT. THE STORIES OF OUR LIVES ARE NOT WORKS OF FICTION OF WHICH WE ARE THE OMNIPOTENT AUTHORS. OUR STORIES COLLIDE WITH THE STORIES OF OTHERS, AND VERY OFTEN THE STORY THE REST OF THE WORLD SEEMS TO BE WRITING FOR US DOES NOT MATCH OUR PLOT AT ALL. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER YOU PUT ANY EFFORT INTO CREATING THE FUTURE YOU WANT FOR YOURSELF, THERE ARE PLENTY OF OTHER PEOPLE WHO WILL BE PUTTING EFFORT INTO CREATING A FUTURE YOU DON’T WANT.

IF THERE ARE 200 PEOPLE IN THIS ROOM, THEN THERE ARE 200 UNIQUE STORIES ABOUT WHY EACH OF US ARE HERE. PART OF THE REASON THAT GRADUATION IS SO POWERFUL IS THAT IT’S A MOMENT IN WHICH ALL OF THOSE INDIVIDUAL STORIES WEAVE TOGETHER IN A HELIX THAT FOR 224 YEARS HAS CREATED A CULTURE ON THIS CAMPUS THAT STRIVES FOR THE MOTTO YOU ARE ABOUT TO SEE ON YOUR DIPLOMAS — LUX LIBERTAS — LIGHT AND LIBERTY.

AND NOW IT’S TIME FOR US TO GIVE YOU THOSE PAPERS AND TURN THE PAGE FROM THIS CHAPTER IN YOUR STORY TO THE NEXT.

YOU HAVE BEEN A PART OF THE LONG, IMPROBABLE STORY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL ITSELF. TIME HERE MARCHES ON, PEOPLE HERE MARCH ON, BUT THE PLOT OF OUR SHARED STORY — TO BRING LIGHT AND LIBERTY TO THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE AND THE WORLD — REMAINS THE SAME.

YOU’VE WALKED THIS UNIVERSITY’S BRICK PATHS FOR THE LAST TIME AS STUDENTS, BUT AS YOU SET OFF INTO A WORLD OF UNCERTAINTY, THE CHOICES YOU MAKE IN YOUR UNIQUE PURSUIT OF YOUR UNIQUE STORIES BECOME THE GUIDING LIGHTS THAT FUTURE GENERATIONS WILL USE TO WALK THESE SAME BRICK PATHS.

YOUR CHOICES ON HOW TO APPLY THE POWERFUL SKILLS YOU LEARNED HERE AT UNC BECOME DATAPOINTS THAT STUDENTS 20 YEARS FROM NOW WILL USE TO BUILD THEIR MODEL OF THE CAROLINA WAY AND ALL THE POSSIBLE FUTURES IT MIGHT HAVE.

PARENTS, FAMILIES AND FRIENDS, THANK YOU FOR ENTRUSTING THESE STUDENTS YOU LOVE TO UNC. FACULTY, THANK YOU FOR PREPARING THESE STUDENTS TO BE LEADERS IN EVERY VOCATION AND AVOCATION. AND STUDENTS — GRADUATES — THANK YOU FOR EVERYTHING YOU’VE ADDED TO THE STORY OF UNC AND EVERYTHING YOU WILL CONTINUE TO ADD. I LOOK FORWARD TO LISTENING TO ONE OF YOU GIVE THE GRADUATION SPEECH AT THE JOURNALISM SCHOOL IN 2037.